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2011 Hurricane Season Forecast


Along with sunshine, Caribbean Cruise season, BBQ’s and more, this year’s summer will also be marked by something much more unwelcome – the Atlantic hurricane season. The season starts from June 1st and goes on till Nov 30th every year.

The yearly occurrence is however predicted to be much higher than above normal in the 2011 season, according to the annual preseason report issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

To be more specific, what the NOAA is forecasting is twelve to eighteen named storms or winds that have velocities of more than thirty nine mi / hr or more.

Of the storms, six to ten has a potential of becoming hurricanes or winds that have seventy four mi per hour or more velocity.

Out of the hurricanes, 3 to 6 can become major storms, winds of 111 mi / hr or more could get to be major storms of category 3, 4 and 5. These are winds as fast as or more than 111 mi per hour.

The average of the seasonal storm forecast is in eleven named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. As stated by the NOAA, the ranges have a seventy per cent probability of happening.

The likely storms are being driven by a number of climatic factors such as past oceanic and atmospheric conditions which have been conducive toward active hurricane seasons ever since 1995.

The sea surface temperatures are also two degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average.

The La Nina, although weakening in the equatorial Pacific, will reduce wind sheer which will not be helpful to the Atlantic hurricane season. Higher wind shear could have been a limiting factor towards intensification of storms.

Cruisers will have to keep a few things in mind in the upcoming season. The busiest times of the hurricane season will be different in different places.

The season is normally at its peak along the East coast of the US and the Eastern Caribbean during the mid August to mid September period.

The Western Caribbean is busy in the mid September to early November period.

September 10 is the most active day of the hurricane season historically, and it is almost guaranteed that there will be a named storm somewhere.

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